tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-115171582011-12-14T22:04:48.479-05:00Disclaimer: Those Buy/Hold/Sell ratings in this blog are merely my personal judgments, you should NOT use them as basis for your investments. Facts and forward looking statements in my articles may be materially different from the actual results, you need to do you own homework to get a better picture. I may or may not have positions in those companies, thus my judgments could be biased.CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.comBlogger1181100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1146142677574546332006-04-27T08:57:00.000-04:002006-04-27T09:01:29.780-04:00

SOHU.com reported yet another good quarter, beating its own guidance and street forecasts.Advertising: I have been checking its web sites regularly, found a strong online ad momentum after Chinese New Year. Autos, computers, cell phones, other electronics, and real estate are the strongest categories. Also given that SOHU has a network of web sites, it is good to see that some of those sites

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1144418978861662452006-04-07T09:55:00.001-04:002006-04-07T10:12:12.273-04:00

I picked up some AAPL shares in the past several days, it has recovered strongly from previous low on the news of Windows enabled Intel processor based Macs.Apple has a slight 2.5% market share in world pc shipments. I tend to believe this strategic shift of letting Macs to support Windows is a huge plus for the company. I used to think of buying a Mac, but was not so comfortable to do it on the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1144418327838510032006-04-07T09:55:00.000-04:002006-04-07T09:58:47.896-04:00

An article "Rebound of Webzen" on http://jdmba.blogspot.com tells some recent development on this distressed South Korea game developer.I believed this is a value stock at current level, its future largely depends on the upcoming roll out of its game portfolio. The biggest risk is that the uncertainty of market acceptance of these upcoming titles.I am long WZEN.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1143212972201725882006-03-24T10:14:00.000-05:002006-03-24T10:10:21.540-05:00

Based on an article "Tom and Ebay Following Yahoo-Alibaba?" at http://bbb.typepad.com/billsdue/, rumor has it that Ebay may sell its China auction site EachNet to Tom online.Things are getting more interesting.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1143212534687400182006-03-24T10:05:00.000-05:002006-03-24T10:03:46.540-05:00

The rumor that Tom online was looking to step into Sina seems to have some basis. Hong Kong newspaper ??? had an article saying Tom is in talks to buy Shand's 20% stake in SINA, citing unidentified person.I guess SINA stock has run up in past couple weeks mainly due to this takeover speculation. It is hard to say how likely the takeover will happen, but in the past years, we have heard plenty of

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1142949140095824862006-03-22T10:05:00.000-05:002006-03-24T09:04:31.630-05:00

CNTF Reported Q405 EarningsTechfaith Wireless(CNTF), the Chinese handset design solution provider, reported a better than expected Q405. For full year 2005, net revenue was 90 million USD, diluted EPS is 1$.However, Q106 guidance is only about half of what was expected, revenue is guided to be 12.5 mil USD, net income to be about 1 mil USD. They also provided Q2 guidance for revenue of 24 mil USD

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1142949951301892342006-03-21T10:05:00.000-05:002006-03-21T09:10:24.950-05:00

Bloomberg news reported a rumor that Tom online (NASDAQ:TOMO) is in talks to take over EachNet, Ebay's fully owned China operation. I also read some rumor some days ago that Tom may take over Sina.Anyway, nowdays we don't lack rumors. Let them be.I did not update on these Chinese wireless plays(TOMO,KONG,HRAY,LTON) for quite a while, I may do so when I get some spare time. I can disclose that I

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1142875882761109822006-03-20T10:05:00.000-05:002006-03-20T13:34:43.456-05:00

A rumor was spreading among Chinese media web sites, it said that TechFaith(CNTF) is providing design service to some unlicensed vendors which sells black market phones. Some marketing people from Techfaith denied the rumor.Given the Company is going to report Q405 earnings just after the market closes today, it is hard to make a decision on this rumor. If the rumor is true, I believe the market

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1142620210849069542006-03-17T10:05:00.000-05:002006-03-17T13:34:21.333-05:00

I have made some money in the past after buying CNTF around 10$. I took my profits as the stock steadily came off in the past couple months.As the stock kept falling in the last a few weeks, it has come into my sight again. I revisited what I believed before and checked all available public information of this Chinese handset design firm, I found my old thesis to aggressively buy this stock at

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1142265924779451632006-03-13T10:05:00.001-05:002006-03-24T09:03:01.783-05:00

Sohu's CEO, Charles Zhang, rang NASDAQ open bell last week, and later on went on CNBC to speak out again.As he always did, Charles insists that:* Wall Street and foreign investors do not understand China Internet market. Well, it is natural to assume everybody else is fool while he is the only wise one in the world, but it does not help much by speaking it out in public.* Mr. Zhang kept saying

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1142263442544303062006-03-13T10:05:00.000-05:002006-03-13T10:24:02.566-05:00

For SFCC stock holders, the couple weeks around their last earning release was not a easy journey. SFCC did not release numbers on their scheduled release date, saying there was some impairment charges in Q4, and earnings were postponed for a week. The stock dropped into 18's on the news.However, what a relief it is to read their earnings the following week, it showed the business is in very good

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1141222332570522132006-03-01T09:12:00.000-05:002006-03-01T09:37:25.216-05:00

SNDA did surprise the public again with a loss in Q405. The stock writedown of Actoz is inevitable. In Nov 2004, they spent 91.7 million USD for 29% stake in South Korean game developer Actoz, maker of Mir II. They paid 100% premium over market price for that stake. Since then, this South Korean firm's stock has been going down. As of year end of 2005, the overall market value of this firm was

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1140803721696626462006-02-24T12:55:00.000-05:002006-02-24T13:10:25.946-05:00

SINA reported a not so good quarter, guidance is even worse.Meanwhile, as we witnessed, we are never lack of cheerleaders of this so called No. 1 online media in China. They screwed up last quarter, investors did not care, stock did not go down, it went up. They screwed up again, investors showed their amazing tolerance again. I guess this kind of phenomenon will keep going until people are fed

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1140617454383739402006-02-22T09:10:00.000-05:002006-02-22T09:14:46.903-05:00

Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU), the so called 'Google of China', has reported a good Q405. It is not a surprise to me, actually its actual revenue and forecasted revenue numbers are quite close to my previous estimates.The bottom line is that this is a good company, but the stock price went far ahead. I maintain my previous 'Underperform' view and 12-month price target 35$.BIDU Q405 Update 

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1140202901522586632006-02-17T14:01:00.000-05:002006-02-17T14:09:39.306-05:00

GSI Commerce (NASDAQ:GSIC) reported a so so quarter, EPS 25 cents is shy of average analyst estimate of 30 cents. Q106 revenue guidance is also lower than expected.After the report, I was a little surprised by the resilience of the stock. In the long run, I believe this company has the potential to evolve to a good story, but before the iceberg shows a tip, I won't be a big fan of it. I think it

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1140215272541741092006-02-17T06:18:00.000-05:002006-02-17T17:28:26.483-05:00

I was thinking to buy a new desktop a month ago to play video games. Nowadays, 3D games developers like Electronic Art(NASDAQ:ERTS) and Activision(NASDAQ:ATVI) are putting more and more efforts to make fancier visual and sound effects. As a result, latest 3D games require better CPUs, bigger hard disks, larger memories, and more powerful video cards.Although ERTS and ATVI stocks have been

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1139350122689690102006-02-07T17:18:00.000-05:002006-02-07T17:08:42.690-05:00

SFBC International(NASDAQ:SFCC) new CEO held a meeting with street analysts on Feb 2nd. The meeting clearly was productive, stock went up 10% so far after the meeting. A couple analysts upgraded their rating and price target for SFCC stock, Goldman also disclosed on Feb 3rd that they acquired 9.6% of total SFCC shares, making it the biggest shareholder.I think it is a matter of time before the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1139348794864156702006-02-07T16:46:00.000-05:002006-02-07T16:52:35.430-05:00

To most street analysts, SOHU Q405 report was a surprise, but not to me. The Company reported good business developments for both online AD and wireless service. Next year growth guidance is above 25% for advertising.I maintain my previous calls ( 1, 2 ) to buy the stock with a 27$ target in mind.I am long SOHU.SOHU Q405 Report 

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1139003938402690012006-02-01T11:18:00.002-05:002006-02-03T17:01:12.606-05:00

Feb 3rd, 2006 (Google blog showed the wrong date!)I noticed that Chinese penny stocks listed in America are usually more volatile than penny stocks from other countries. In the past few days, there was a mania sweeping through almost all China related little stocks, some them are:Ticker MktCap Close 2 week performanceCHNR 23 M USD 18.5 517%CTDC 108 M USD 9.64 442%CAAS 225 M USD 9.98 43%

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1138812505784663552006-02-01T11:18:00.000-05:002006-02-01T11:48:30.826-05:00

SFCC is a mid term credit and even-driven play. It has been beaten down hard in the past month or two by unethical and illegal practices in forcing some illegal immigrants to take drug test by threats. This practice has cost the company two thirds of its market cap, as well as the seats of a few senior officers. I think as long as there will not be materially bad news coming out in the future,

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1138123212430130062006-01-24T11:31:00.001-05:002006-01-24T12:20:12.570-05:00

After Softbank spent about 400 billion JPY to get about 52% of Gravity, there was a debate whether small shareholders had been screwed by the deal. Based on a bullish report from CSFB, analyst Jeff Kahng believed this deal would create value to small shareholders, since Softbank will bring better management expertise and global reach.However, I doubted that both previous owner,JUNG-RYOOL KIM, and

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1138120927596802502006-01-24T11:31:00.000-05:002006-01-24T11:42:07.630-05:00

SINA provided Q405 preliminary revenue and earning guidance, which will come in a little bit lower than previously guided. The stock traded up 7.5% to 23.52 at the moment I am writing this.I have been closely watching it in the past month, found that the market sentiment toward it was quite strong, that may probably explains why the stock shoot up on not so good news.I do not own any SINA shares,

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1137515932274441462006-01-17T11:38:00.000-05:002006-01-17T11:38:52.303-05:00

Happy new year, everybody, please excuse my delay in updating my blog these days.I guess so far this year has been a smooth sailing for most investors and traders, I also enjoyed the breeze of the overall market in the past two weeks, pushing up my own account more than 20%.I have been closely watching the general equity market, where no clear sign of whether bulls or bears will win the match.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1134050226269353102005-12-08T13:30:00.000-05:002005-12-08T08:57:47.863-05:00

DTAS is an online advertising agency, with a business model similar to VCLK,AQNT, and MCHX.This group has been doing well, given that the trend of advertising dollar migration from offline to online continued. It is said online advertising spending is up about 33% in 2005 versus 2004. I think the growth rate in this sector will at least maintain current level for the next few years, given that

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1133565232405562712005-12-02T18:13:00.000-05:002005-12-08T07:57:33.193-05:00

I am still holding 'Neutral' view to Ctrip.com, though I expect its revenue to increase 30% in 2006, EPS to be up 22% YoY. However, I think Ctrip is close to fully valued at this point. In the past two years, Ctrip has been enjoying a much higher PE multiples than its Chinese Internet peers, going forward I expect the PE multiple to come in line with peers.CTRP Q305 Report 

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1133469128097707652005-12-01T13:30:00.000-05:002005-12-01T15:32:57.293-05:00

WoW did not bad in its first full quarter commercial operation, it brought in 20.4 million revenue, but it was not good enough to satisfy high public expectation, still remember somebody talking about what if even a few percents of 1.3 billion people will play Wow, how much money The9 will make? Unfortunately, business operations are not as easy as adding a few numbers, we got to respect the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1133309741521320022005-11-29T19:15:00.000-05:002005-12-01T15:07:36.196-05:00

Shanda Q3 report has been very bad for investors. I made a mistake so far in calling to buy Shanda shares when it was around 30$. After reading into Q305 report and recent Shanda's update that it is switching to free-to-play business model for two of its major MMORPGS, I have changed my view from 'Buy' to 'Hold', with a 12-month target 20$, derived from 20 times of lowered 2006 EPS.In my opinion,

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1133307150996859152005-11-29T18:32:00.000-05:002005-11-29T18:51:35.773-05:00

After ValueClick's Q305 Report, I maintain my previous 'Buy' rating, and I am raising 12-Month target from 18$ to 21$, based on 15 times of 2006 projected EBITDA plus cash.Although this stock has gone up more than 60% since I recommended it back in June 2005, I believe there is still upside going forward given that:* Continued strength in online marketing Wall Street Journal reported a few weeks

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1133478011643838962005-11-22T13:30:00.001-05:002005-12-02T17:01:49.193-05:00

CNTF is a perfect example of market inefficiency. I have been watching it since its IPO, when it was trading in the high teens, I did not give much attention to it since its business model was pretty new, thus there was too much uncertainty about revenue and earning power. And its near one billion price tag was not close to be a clear bargain.But in the past summer, the stock has been going down

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1132685929432773752005-11-22T13:30:00.000-05:002005-11-22T18:13:59.830-05:00

There were a few overly undervalued tiny Chinese stocks, based on what the market told us recently:CNTF:This Chinese cell phone designer is going to earn about 1 dollar per ADS for 2005, having about 4 bucks in cash, while its shares were traded below 10 for more than a month. In the past 5 trading days, the stock has jumped more than 70%, currently trading at 15.22$. I think a price between 16

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1132180023306043822005-11-16T17:27:00.000-05:002005-11-16T18:46:14.283-05:00

What happened?In my opinion, Q3 was not a bad quarter for NTES at all. Revenue was 0.7 million higher than I thought, and EPS came the same as I called.Before we start criticizing the market being insane, let's think about what has changed on fundamental level:-Slow down of two flagship games: All MMORPG games have its life cycles, there is no game can last for ever. It is quite reasonable to

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1131555152282888432005-11-09T11:52:00.000-05:002005-11-09T12:27:21.850-05:00

SOHU reported a good quarter, a few key points:* Online ads is growing with healthy rates, and 30% YOY growth is quite achievable in 2006, in my own opinion.* We may continue to see the wireless sector to recover, given its small revenue contribution at the moment, there are potentials that SOHU can further moneytize its brand name through wireless contents.* So far, Sogou is not generating much

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1131109449910076362005-11-04T08:04:00.000-05:002005-11-04T08:39:39.546-05:00

SINA's Q3 revenue comes lower than expected, it net income in particular is heavily hit by large marketing costs for wireless services.Online advertising keeps growth momentum, Q305 YoY and QoQ growth rates are 24% and 13% respectively. The management believes this sector will have about 30% YOY growth rates in 2006, as the tend of migration from traditional media advertising to online

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1130362207855623082005-10-26T17:30:00.000-04:002005-10-26T17:36:02.590-04:00

GSI Commerce (GSIC) said today it is cutting Q305 and full year earning guidance, also said Q3 report is delayed due to some internal control issues, which will have non-material impact on past earnings. Stocks fell from yesterday's close, 19.05, to as low as 12.50, it closed at 16.46.Below are my updated estimates based on new guidance, I maintained my previous 'Neutral' rating and 17$ 12-month

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1130360061589379132005-10-26T16:54:00.000-04:002005-10-26T17:37:43.540-04:00

Baidu reported a good quarter in my opinion, but since the stock has been running far ahead of the business itself, it is very hard for the company to satisfy the greedy public.I am holding underperform opinion on this stock and raising 12-month target from 16 to 35, based on 25 times of 2007 estimated EPS.(Here is my previous update)The major risk is slower growth rate than expected. I am

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1127832843684888642005-09-27T10:54:00.000-04:002005-09-27T11:04:45.963-04:00

I believe SOHU is a long term buy on a relative value basis,my 12 month target is 27$, based on 23 times of estimated 2006 EPS.Although investors love SINA for its No.1 position in terms of traffic and advertising revenue, I prefer SOHU shares for a few reasons:* SOHU has a more stable management team than SINA.* SOHU's advertising revenue is catching up. In particular, 17173.com will continue to

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1127425740675723102005-09-22T17:40:00.000-04:002005-09-22T17:55:59.563-04:00

Analyst Qiu from Forun Technologies has updated 2005 earnings estimate for a bunch of Chinese firms on Sep 21st:SNDA: $1.77NTES: $3.22NCTY: $0.5SINA: $0.89SOHU: $0.74My updated estimates are:SNDA: $1.57NTES: $3.16NCTY: $0.49SINA: $0.87SOHU: $0.84

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1127221564266955162005-09-20T09:05:00.000-04:002005-09-20T09:06:04.276-04:00

Latest news says NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES) CEO Ted Sun passed away.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126903931333714372005-09-16T16:51:00.000-04:002005-09-16T16:53:05.310-04:00

It is Friday again, I found the following puzzle quite interesting:The distance between the towns A and B is 1000 miles. There is 3000 bananas in A, and the bananas have to be delivered to B. The camel can take 1000 bananas at most, and it will eat 1 banana for every next mile it will make. Figure out the strategy that yields the largest amount of bananas to be delivered to B.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126891178508914342005-09-16T13:16:00.000-04:002005-09-16T13:30:03.090-04:00

Shorts had a nice journey in the past a few weeks. Despite the softness of some MMORPG titles, I believe the stock has been hit too much, I think the risk adjusted reward is very attractive at current price.Full disclosure: I long SNDA.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126701906260376482005-09-14T08:40:00.000-04:002005-09-14T08:45:06.273-04:00

Google has won the court case against Microsoft to allow Kai-Fu Lee to work for Google. Lee will be Google's China chief.Also, Google is to begin its 4 billion USD secondary offering this Thursday. Given the generosity showed recently by Yahoo and Ebay in their purchases, we won't be shocked if Google will spend that money to buy something. What could it be? Baidu? Or some U.S. broadband

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126701100664208182005-09-14T08:19:00.000-04:002005-09-14T08:34:04.986-04:00

Piper Jaffrey and Goldman started covering Baidu with underperform rating on valuation concerns.Other Chinese stocks that look pricey to me include JOBS,CTRP,FMCN.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126530983080740552005-09-12T09:04:00.000-04:002005-09-12T09:16:23.100-04:00

News confirmed previous rumor that Ebay was buying Skype, the final price tag is 2.6 billion USD. Looks pricey.Oracle to buy Siebel for 5.85 billion USD, a much sensible deal compared to that of Ebay.Also, SINA CEO commented on the rumor that Shanda may sell its stake of Sina: ``We also heard the rumors, but haven't been officiallynotified of this by the company. We cooperate with Shanda in

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126282065608617772005-09-09T11:57:00.000-04:002005-09-09T12:07:45.623-04:00

Most will think he is kidding if someone tells you Shanda starts making films. I can not believe it either, but after I checked various online news sources, it is true that the first film produced by Shanda, Internet Teenagers, will be released on Sep 10th. Here you can find news report from PacificEpoch. There is also a dedicated website for this film.I hold my view that in the long run Shanda

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126268566767911612005-09-09T08:16:00.000-04:002005-09-09T08:22:46.773-04:00

The fifth Internet forum, 'West Lake Talks', will be held on Sep 10th in HangZhou, China. Former U.S. present has arrived and will give a speech. Other important attendants include CEOs/Presidents of Sina,Sohu,NetEase,Shanda,Tecent,Baidu,TomOnline and Ctrip.com. This event is organized by Alibaba.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126180574031315052005-09-08T07:40:00.000-04:002005-09-08T07:56:14.036-04:00

Big guys in the Internet space have fastened pace of acquisition. While Yahoo spent 1 billion and bought its way to a big presence in China, and the market was still not sure how Google will spend their newly raised about four billion dollars with 15 million shares of second equity offering, now Ebay was reported to be in talks to buy Skype, a company dedicated to make phone calls from a computer

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126111963835971392005-09-07T12:49:00.000-04:002005-09-07T12:52:43.843-04:00

I saw people passing on this rumor witout identifiable source. In my opinion, I don't think Charles Zhang will sell his company, if he does, there may be many buyers, since I believe SOHU is seriously undervalued compared to its peers and other Chinese tech companies.Full disclosure, I long SOHU.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1126099717247596962005-09-07T09:16:00.000-04:002005-09-07T09:29:11.693-04:00

Starting from Sep 1st, Shanda(SNDA) starts operating Ragnarkok online(RO). RO is a game from Gravity(GRVY), a Korean game maker. In Q205, performance of RO in China was not good, it generated about only about 1 million USD revenue, estimated from the dislcosed revenue sharing by Gravity. However, there was a major update in July, which could possibily bring some players. Taiwan operator SoftWorld

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1125409303614091452005-08-30T09:39:00.000-04:002005-08-31T08:15:50.726-04:00

Gravity(NASDAQ:GRVY) president JUNG RYOOL KIM sold his 52.4% stake in Gravity to Japanese investment firms EZER and Techno Groove, the latter is a wholly owned subsidiary of Asian Groove, of which Taizo Son, a Korean citizen, is serving president and holding 81.7% stake.Masayoshi Son, Taizo Son's brother, is a Japanese citizen. He holds 32.7% of the common stock of SOFTBANK, which controls 44.6%

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com33tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124974443844499642005-08-25T08:35:00.000-04:002005-08-25T09:07:58.700-04:00

The9(NASDAQ:NCTY) reported a quarter with more revenue, but unfortunately more revenue did not save the company from a loss of 2.8 mil USD:" -- Net revenues for the second quarter of 2005 grew by 354.5% quarter- over-quarter and 386.0% year-over-year to RMB55.7 million (US$6.7 million). -- Net revenue attributable to the operation of World of Warcraft® ("WoW") for the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124798719654406392005-08-23T07:50:00.000-04:002005-08-23T08:05:49.130-04:00

Gravity(NASDAQ:GRVY) reported another disappointing quarter for shareholders, me included. Revenue and net income both come under previous guidance. After failed twice to guide the public properly, the Company refused to give any forward looking guidance at this moment. Indeed, it is hard to forecast revenue from a game, especially the majority revenue is generated from its overseas partners,

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124487743643035002005-08-19T17:42:00.000-04:002005-08-19T18:21:20.713-04:00

Regarding my previous call on NetEase right after Q205 earning release, I realized I was too conservative. After careful rethinking, I am increasing my 12-month target from 78$ to 95$. The target price is derived by taking the average of two valuation methods: 16 times of projected 2006 EBITDA plus cash, 22 times of projected 2006 EPS.I think taking an average of above two numbers makes sense,

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124469953403055262005-08-19T12:43:00.000-04:002005-08-19T12:48:51.090-04:00

I saw some brain teasers online that are interesting, they are said to be interview questions from Goldman, anyway, here they are:1. At a train station: there is a south-bound train every 10 minutes; there is a north-bound train every 10 minutes. Every day you arrive at the train station at some random time, and you board the first train that arrives, whatever that is. After a year you found that

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124465768713841472005-08-19T11:29:00.000-04:002005-08-19T11:45:31.716-04:00

After ValueClick(VCLK) says it is going to acquire FastClick(FSTC) for 214 million USD, and after I played with various scenarios, I think this acquisition will be a few cents accretive to my previously forecasted 2006 EPS of $0.69. Thus I hold my previous view that this stock is a long term buy, with a 18$ 12-month target.Since this acquisition involves selling of new shares, FastClick stock

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124385485339959922005-08-18T13:17:00.000-04:002005-08-18T13:18:05.346-04:00

Google said it is going to shares that will raise about 4 billion dollars, use of which is not specified. Many investors and analysts are 'surprised' by this news, arguing that Google has no immediate needs for more cash.I agree that based on public information, Google has more than enough cash to maintain operation, that 3 billion dollars cash sitting on its balance sheet was good enough to meet

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124314413148690082005-08-17T17:31:00.000-04:002005-08-17T17:33:33.156-04:00

CFA institute said 56% candidates passed 2005 Level II exam, I am glad to be one of them.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124296769547647012005-08-17T12:39:00.000-04:002005-08-17T12:47:58.466-04:00

KONG and HRAY are similar in many ways, they are in same business, similar revenue, similar marketing strategy, similar products,etc. After Q205, I did a comparison between these two. Due to the unpredictability of government regulation change, thus I did not bother to guess revenue growth for 2006. My general feeling is that the easy money era for WVAS guys is gone and they may have to face

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124216020525105232005-08-16T14:10:00.000-04:002005-08-16T14:13:40.533-04:00

Chinese WVAS playsTom Online reported an impressing quarter, due to more distribution channels and events like NBA basket finals, while Hurray reported a quarter that showed little growth over previous quarter.This sector has been under pressure since last year, and several months ago I have been calling to buy this group since most bad news were reflected in prices. After the recent runup of

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1124126685702984392005-08-15T13:24:00.000-04:002005-08-15T13:24:51.763-04:00

NineTowns Digital(NASDAQ:NINE) saw its share crashed to new low of $4.8. This software provider in automating import/export processing in China for enterprises and government agencies said its full year revenue and EPS guidance will be lower, due to the upcoming tools that may be distributed by government free of charge.The main problem for NINE is that its business depends too much on the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123879624160747462005-08-12T16:47:00.000-04:002005-08-12T17:17:34.610-04:00

Have you ever played MONOPOLY? I guess the answer is 'yes'. I found that MONOPOLY was invented by Charles B Darrow in 1934. In the 65 years from 1935 to 2000, over 200 million games have been sold worldwide, and about 500 million people have played!Here is a more detailed history of this game.The original MONOPOLY was a card board game, I used to play with my nephew couple years ago. It is a

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123878750437448332005-08-12T16:32:00.000-04:002005-08-12T16:36:37.363-04:00

News said Da Tang is going to closed beta tested as early as Aug 18th. You can find a trailer here.Awesome game, if I have time, that will be the game I will play. If you understand how much Chinese love those Chinese ancient Kong Fu stories, you may think that NetEase is pushing out the right things at the right time.DaTang 

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123863936393949752005-08-12T12:06:00.000-04:002005-08-12T12:25:36.410-04:00

SOHU CEO Charles Zhang is buying more of his own stock again. He is the only Chinese CEO that I know that have been buying its own ADR stock consistently. That signal is quite clear: he thinks his company is undervalued.I tend to agree with him, SOHU is one of the tiny companies in Chinese Internet and technology sector in terms of market capitalization, but I think its actual business now much

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123800771519105112005-08-11T18:13:00.000-04:002005-08-11T19:08:41.290-04:00

What is going on with oil? Sep oil future touched $66 a barrel! How high can it go? 100?Even with the rising price, reports said demand keeps rising. Global petroleum consumption is expected to rise 2 percent to 83.7 million barrels a day this year versus that of last year.On the other hand of equation, the OPEC members are already running at their limits, there is not much spare capacity in

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123764931535358202005-08-11T08:55:00.000-04:002005-08-11T09:19:53.096-04:00

YAHOO finally got 40% stake in Alibaba with 1 billion USD cash payment. This should be accretive to Yahoo in the long term, and will question Ebay's future in China. However, remember that Ebay only paid 180 million USD to take over EachNet completely, while Yahoo is paying 1 billion USD for a 40% stake in Alibaba, the No.2 player in the field, I will say Ebay managers are better deal makers than

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123680931113948552005-08-10T09:33:00.000-04:002005-08-10T09:35:31.123-04:00

Shanda reported an quarter that is generally inline with my previous expectations:" Summary of the second quarter 2005: * Net revenues increased 88.0% year-over-year and 8.5% quarter-over- quarter to RMB539.5 million (US$65.2 million); * Online games revenues, including MMORPG and casual games, increased 72.0% year-over-year and 5.7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB466.7 million

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123601863525875662005-08-09T11:33:00.000-04:002005-08-09T11:39:42.836-04:00

Shanda will report after market close, here is my call as disclosed before:"Back to the financials, I think the market has a fair expectation for Shanda in 2005. For Q205, I am expecting net revenue to be around 61.3 mil USD, of which 40 mil comes from MMORPGs (a -5% QoQ decline to reflect heated competition), 18.7 mil USD comes from casual games (a 15% QoQ growth), and 9.4 mil USD comes from

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123534221360945632005-08-08T16:50:00.000-04:002005-08-08T16:58:26.043-04:00

Someone asks me about CTrip.com(NASDAQ:CTRP),here is what I can share:I think the share in the past year have been reflecting the growth, potential and market leadership of Ctrip fairly well, it did not fall into my range which I saw it as a bargin,thus I never got a chance to touch it.In the long term, I do believe this is a good compnay to put money in, the question is at what price. I am

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123533122087622982005-08-08T16:20:00.000-04:002005-08-08T16:32:02.100-04:00

Yahoo declined to comment on the rumor that it is spending 1 billion to bid for 35% stake in Alibaba, the No.2 online auction site in China.I rather treat this as a rumor, Alibaba is a good company, and I think its TaoBao site is very promising to be a long term rival of Ebay's China branch EachNet. However, I do not think its 35% stake is worth that much now, unless all Chinese stocks are going

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123273671687058502005-08-05T16:18:00.000-04:002005-08-05T17:16:25.640-04:00

Surely the bulls of 2000 find their day back, when worthless penny stocks are sold at nose blowing prices, and when everything is about sentiment. I respect a lot on those who dare to buy some share at today's close and hold it firmly for a year or two, they will be my heroes.I guess not, today 22.5 million shares changed hands, while only 4 million shares are float, so every share have been

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123244331416018012005-08-05T08:16:00.000-04:002005-08-05T08:18:51.423-04:00

Baidu raised IPO price again from 25$ to 27$! When will CBOT start offering options?I keep a 'UnderPerform' rating and 12-month target of 16$.Here is my analysis:http://coolheadinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/08/baidubidu25underperform-ipo.html

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123191096604717802005-08-04T17:31:00.000-04:002005-08-04T17:39:22.873-04:00

I am reiterating 'Buy' rating for ValueClick(NASDAQ:VCLK) after Q2 report,which is inline with my estimate, while EPS beating consensus by 1 cent a share. I am raising 12 month target from 15$ to 18$,derived by 14 times of 2006 projected EBITDA or 22 times of adjusted EPS (Which is GAAP EPS plus amortization of intangibles, which I think should be added back to get a true picture of the earning

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123179932545875222005-08-04T14:25:00.000-04:002005-08-04T15:12:17.023-04:00

Can not wait for the debut of Baidu(BIDU)? Sure it is for those who punched their chests for having missed the golden opportunity of Google. Now Baidu may be an opportunity for them to make up the past mistake.However, Baidu guys and their smart IPO underwriters are not that stupid to sell investors a bargain. Baidu has done a terrific job in timing the IPO time, when Google is close to all time

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123164423390181242005-08-04T10:07:00.000-04:002005-08-04T10:18:32.223-04:00

51Job.com(NASDAQ:JOBS) reported a quarter that is inline with my estimates. I keep a 'Sell' rating for JOBS and hold a 12 month target 10$, which can hardly justified by earning power of the business, rather, I have built in some expectations of brandname and takeover opportunities. Please refer to my previous discussion on JOBS before Q2 earning release at:http://coolheadinvestor.blogspot.com/

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123109638832870692005-08-03T18:53:00.000-04:002005-08-03T19:19:15.673-04:00

Sina reported an inline quarter, a few takeaways:* Online advertising keeps doing well and may continue to maintain high growth rates going forward.* WVAS may have bottomed, we may see a slow recovery going forward. However,increased competition and SINA's late arrival to 2.5G services may put a up limit to the growth rate.* So far, SINA's venture to online and casual games is not rewarding yet.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123085098202897542005-08-03T12:02:00.000-04:002005-08-03T13:19:05.123-04:00

NetEase reported a super strong quarter that beats estimates handsomely. Its share is up more than 20% after the earnings. Now, what about Shanda(NASDAQ:SNDA)?As the first China online gaming company that comes to NASDAQ, Shanda showed investors a whole new business model that is both very profitable and sustainable. After Shanda's sweeping success in its business in China, as well as its shares

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123014205554402822005-08-02T16:18:00.000-04:002005-08-02T16:24:05.456-04:00

No need to say much, Netease reported a very strong quarter. I am raising 12-month target from 65$ to 78$. For 2005, I am expecting revenue to be around 198 mil USD, EPS to be around 3.13$. If the new MMORPGS goes well, there will be upside in these estimates.Please refer to my previous discussion about NTES before Q2 earnings:http://coolheadinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1123009421512136752005-08-02T14:57:00.000-04:002005-08-02T15:03:41.516-04:00

Although I do not make predictions of the market and do not act on those judgment, if there is any, I hold my view that we may be at the beginning of a sustainable bull run:http://coolheadinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/are-we-at-beginning-of-sustainable.html

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1122647752129941832005-07-29T10:35:00.000-04:002005-07-29T10:58:02.830-04:00

I am reintegrating my 'Sell' rating on 51Job.com (JOBS), based on the protracted overvaluation of the shares and the weakness of its fundamentals. My 12-month price target for this stock is 10$ per ADR, which is derived by 13 times of 2006 EBITDA plus cash, or 21 times of 2006 earnings plus cash. I believe these multiples used are too high for 51JOBS, since its growth rate is far from

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1122588273157083642005-07-28T17:45:00.000-04:002005-07-28T18:04:33.163-04:00

After SOHU Q2 report,I reiterate Neutral rating for SOHU, as I previously discussed inhttp://coolheadinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/updates-on-chinese-stocks-before-q2.htmlA few takeways from SOHU's report:* Good searching revenue. * Wireless is stablizing, good news for other players: TOMO,KONG,HRAY,LTON.* Ad growth maintains.although this quarter SOHU is negatively affected by poor E-commerce

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1122584209355315242005-07-28T16:56:00.000-04:002005-07-28T18:11:28.650-04:00

Yesterday after market close, GSI Commerce(GSIC) reported mixed Q2 earnings, with higher than expected sales and lower than expected earnings.The full year guidance is good if you think in terms of revenue, but bears may worry about the earning power.http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050727/phw030b.html?.v=1I rate this stock as 'Neutral', with a 12-month target of 17$, which is derived by 17 times of

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1122570423146731532005-07-28T13:07:00.000-04:002005-07-28T22:13:19.203-04:00

Reason for report: Business update from the Company, forecast cut.My view:I am lowering Gravity rating from 'Strong Buy' to 'Buy/Hold', target price changed from 30$ to 20$. The target price is derived from 8 times of 2006 EBITDA plus cash, or 10 times of 2006 earnings plus cash. The change is because of short-term revenue pressure as of result of increased competition. As you can see, the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1122415793134838162005-07-26T18:08:00.000-04:002005-07-26T18:10:27.656-04:00

Amazon's report is impressing, the bottom line is sales is still growing fast and the free shipping program did not affect its margin as worse as most Street analysts worried. Net income fell because of higher tax rates. Stock is up about 11% in after-hour trading. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050726/265873.html?.v=1This reminds me the EBAY story again, seems to me only when most street analysts are

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1122048689381028512005-07-22T11:12:00.000-04:002005-07-22T12:11:29.403-04:00

Google reported another good quarter, although not as good as many greedy analysts.Making a decision to buy these high flyers like Google is always painful, fundamentally it is a great business, but there have always been a high premium paid by the market over its business value. Thus, playing with such issues is very technical, research more in various technical indicators or street moods(

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121966432108676572005-07-21T12:27:00.000-04:002005-07-21T13:20:32.133-04:00

Finally, news came out at most people's surprise, just as primiere minister Wen JiaBao said several months ago, Chinese Yuan reevaluation will be done, but at a time that most people can not expect.As always said, buy Chinese stocks with solid fundamentals will be rewarding.

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121897350091094692005-07-20T18:08:00.000-04:002005-07-20T18:09:32.480-04:00

This is a useless question by itself, since no one can say for sure.I have been reluctant to make market predictions and made investment decisions based on them. In the past a year and half, I have been quite skeptical about the general U.S. economy and were worried about the high valuation of many stock issues, especially in tech space.But now, I feel a change is undergoing subconsciously inside

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121894291993267632005-07-20T16:55:00.000-04:002005-07-20T17:18:12.020-04:00

Ebay reported a spectacular quarter:http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050720/tech_ebay_earns.html?.v=5Now what? As I said in previous post, I guess those analysts will rush to pump up enthusiasm again, as we witnessed last winter.Fundamentally, I like the business a lot. Being the dominant worldwide online market place, it is very solid and highly profitable. As more users get online as a result of the

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121864786683900712005-07-20T08:58:00.000-04:002005-07-20T09:10:23.256-04:00

As a record, I am raising 12-month target for Gravity from 25$ to 30$ after a few recent developments:* RagnarOK Online agreement with Shanda. This is the milestone for Gravity to make some money from China, maybe not only from RO, but ROSE Online and RagnarOK Online2 as well.* ROSE Online commercialized in Japan. This is in line with schedule.* Ragnarok Online 2 will be in close-beta test after

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121809628565326992005-07-19T17:46:00.000-04:002005-07-19T17:53:27.793-04:00

Yahoo reported an impressive second quarter:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050719/earns_yahoo.html?.v=2The business is doing very well, but not the shares. After earning report, shares were down 11%.Similarly, Intel also reports a good quarter with strong sales of processors, especially those used in notebooks, but even with higher than expected sales, its shares were down 3.5% in after-hour trading

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121785548700378032005-07-19T11:01:00.000-04:002005-07-28T18:28:41.476-04:00

I reviewed some Chinese stocks listed on NASDAQ before Q2 earnings release, here is what I wish to share with you:*SINA (27.12, Neutral) I continue to believe the Shanda and SINA merger will go nowhere in the near term, I doubt Shanda will be able to make it, if it does, it may take a year or two before Shanda can get itself into SINA's board and get control of the company. Nor do I believe that

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121374149412811372005-07-14T16:29:00.000-04:002005-07-14T16:53:30.653-04:00

Baidu, a Chinese search engine company, filed for IPO, here is the prospectus:Rumors said Baidu targets to value itself at 1 billion USD. If that is true, it will be interesting to see how many are going to pay for this Chinese search engine train ticket. For those who missed the Google train, Baidu may be a chance to make up.Baidu is a good company, the No.1 player in search market in China. But

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121372933002138762005-07-14T16:07:00.000-04:002005-07-14T16:28:53.010-04:00

Focus Media(FMCN), a Chinese outdoor advertisement company, debuts it shares on NASDAQ yesterday. On the first trading day, shares closed at 20.2$ per ADS, giving this company a 740 mil USD market capitalization.Look at its revenue, in 2004 total revenue was 22.9 mil USD, net income was merely 0.3 mil USD. In Q105, revenue was 8.4 mil USD, net income is 2.6 mil USD.Deal underwriters and company

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1121102288703785332005-07-11T13:15:00.000-04:002005-07-11T13:19:02.393-04:00

Today news came out saying that Shanda is licensing Ragnark Online from Gravity. In my opinion, this agreement is significantly value accretive to both parities.For Gravity, this is a milestone for its penetration into China market. Gaming market in China is huge and continue to grow robustly, it is too big to ignore for any gaming company. Before Shanda, RO was operated by Central Value, a

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1120826610664739752005-07-08T08:41:00.000-04:002005-07-08T08:47:24.826-04:00

I started looking at Webzen(WZEN) at the beginning of this year, did not like it because of the poor performance of its sole flagship game (MU) and the lack of information of its future products . Recently, especially after the E3 game show, I learned more details of its upcoming pipeline of games, which are pretty impressive both in quantity and quality. Given the huge cash cushion and the low

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1120747870853483182005-07-07T10:17:00.000-04:002005-07-07T10:51:40.483-04:00

Reports said China government agencies are looking into regulations to limit people's exposure to games, the rationale behind this is that gamers easily get addicted to games, thus it wastes too much precious time, especially those of teenagers, who are thought to should have spent their valuable time in study and exercise, not in games. As a result, many people, including the press, has been

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1120157106472759152005-06-30T14:20:00.000-04:002005-07-28T18:26:51.296-04:00

Lock-up period for The9 shares expired on June 12, 2005 for 2005. One day after, managers of this company and venture capitalists filed to sell about 355,000 shares of stock. Why they rush in such a hurry?The answer is obvious, the share are not cheap, even at insiders' eyes.I hold my recommendation to sell this stock, it seems to have very limited upside while plenty of downside at current price

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1120153381270482302005-06-30T13:42:00.000-04:002005-06-30T13:44:56.376-04:00

Gravity 2004 Annual reportIt is interesting to read.After read it through, it confirmed my thought that this company is well managed. Good management is one of the key factors that I evaluate companies. I noted a few things:* Gravity has two whole owned subsidiaries, one in U.S., the other in Japan. Through these subsidiaries, they are well positioned to launch their own operations in target

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1119899569572730392005-06-27T15:12:00.000-04:002005-06-27T15:21:29.940-04:00

Today ValueClick(VCLK) announced it has closed the acquisitions of Web Marketing Holdings, Inc, and E-Babylon. It also raised 2005 revenue forecast by about 45 million USD. Meanwhile, EPS estimate is increased by merely 2 cents.Without further disclosure, it seems that the two acquisitions will be near to break even this year in their own businesses. It sounds too early to assert that these

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1119646373176537092005-06-24T16:52:00.000-04:002005-06-25T13:23:47.843-04:00

GRVY(8$, Strong Buy, 12 month target 20+)Since I have been holding my belief that Gravity is one of the most attractive stocks in tech sector on NASDAQ from a return vs. risk respective, and since up to now not many investors are aware of this opportunity, I'd like to step out as volunteer to start covering this stock. I reiterate a Strong Buy rating with 20+ 12-month target. The target is

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1117207460133438592005-05-27T11:24:00.000-04:002005-05-27T11:25:17.376-04:00

Gaming3 

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11517158.post-1116869026273322622005-05-21T13:23:00.000-04:002005-05-23T13:24:30.666-04:00

I compared Gravity versus its Korean and Chinese peers, it is not hard to realize that Gravity is still seriously undervalued. GRVY vs. Gaming Industry 

CoolHeadInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10957518656520194217noreply@blogger.com0